Abstract
Fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) are emerging as one of the prominent zero emission vehicle technologies. This study follows a deterministic modeling approach to project two scenarios of FCEV adoption and the resulting hydrogen demand (low and high) up to 2050 in California, using a transportation transition model. The study then estimates the number of hydrogen production and refueling facilities required to meet demand. The impact of system scale-up and learning rates on hydrogen price is evaluated using standalone supply chain models: H2A, HDSAM, HRSAM and HDRSAM. A sensitivity analysis explores key factors that affect hydrogen prices. In the high scenario, light and heavy-duty fuel cell vehicle stocks reach 12.5 million and 1 million by 2050, respectively. The resulting annual hydrogen demand is 3.9 billion kg, making hydrogen the dominant transportation fuel. Satisfying such high future demands will require rapid increases in infrastructure investments starting now, but especially after 2030 when there is an exponential increase in the number of production plants and refueling stations. In the long term, electrolytic hydrogen delivered using dedicated hydrogen pipelines to larger stations offers substantial cost savings. Feedstock prices, size of the hydrogen market and station utilization are the prominent parameters that affect hydrogen price.
Highlights
California’s latest greenhouse gas data show that the state was able to achieve its targets for 2020 as set out in the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 [1,2], but California, being true to its reputation as a global leader in the fight against climate change, has set itself even more ambitious targets for the future
fueled cell electric vehicles (FCEV) offer a driving experience closer to that of conventional vehicles owing to their shorter refueling time and longer range, making them look more attractive in comparison to a battery electric vehicle (BEV) especially in some vehicle segments like long haul trucks
The results show that substantially fewer Hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are required to provide comparable levels of service as existing gasoline stations
Summary
California’s latest greenhouse gas data show that the state was able to achieve its targets for 2020 as set out in the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 [1,2], but California, being true to its reputation as a global leader in the fight against climate change, has set itself even more ambitious targets for the future. Yang et al, employed a quasi-spatial model, CA-TIMES, to analyze the infrastructure requirements to meet hydrogen demand for eight different California regions. Brown et al, developed a detailed economic model, to analyze the cost of dispensed hydrogen in California for existing and future stations. Again the study focused on light duty vehicles and the analysis did not touch upon any upstream infrastructure requirements that would ensure the supply of hydrogen to these stations. Most of the previous studies for California were focused on analyzing hydrogen demand only from light-duty vehicles. Given the different challenges (like refueling times, payload penalty) of using a BEV in many heavy-duty applications (like long haul trucks), hydrogen demand for heavy-duty vehicles is expected to grow substantially in the future. The subsequent sections will describe the modelling approach, assumptions and a detailed description of the various input parameters employed across the different models
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