Low-carbon pathways for the booming express delivery sector in China

Peng Kang,Gang Liu,Hui Zhang,Guanghan Song,Ruoyu Zhong,Huabo Duan,Haikun Wang,Junshu Ren,Ming Xu,Ya Zhou,Travis R Miller

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-20738-4

Abstract

Express delivery services are booming in both developed and emerging economies due to their low cost, convenience, and the fast growth in online shopping. The increasing environmental impacts of express delivery services and mitigation potentials, however, remain largely unexplored. Here we addressed such a gap for China, a country which is expanding online retail sales and express delivery rapidly. We found a total of 8.8 Mt of scrap packaging materials were generated by the express delivery sector in China in 2018. Its transportation-related GHG emissions surged from 0.3 Mt in 2007 to 13.7 Mt of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) in 2018, with an average of 0.27 kgCO2e per piece. Over 80% from online shopping deliveries. We predict these emissions will reach 75 MtCO2e by 2035. Nevertheless, it is possible to mitigate such GHG emissions by 102~134 MtCO2e between 2020 and 2035 if a suite of policies is adopted, including a slowdown of delivery speed, fuel system upgrades, packaging materials reduction, logistics optimization, and carbon pricing.

Highlights

Express delivery services are booming in both developed and emerging economies due to their low cost, convenience, and the fast growth in online shopping
In 2018, approximately 50.7 billion parcels were delivered in China, over 80% of them from online shopping
We estimated that 13.7 (σ = 2.2) metric tons (Mt) of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions were caused by the logistics and transportation of express deliveries in China in 2018, over 80% from online shopping parcels and nearly 99% from intercity deliveries

Summary

Introduction

Express delivery services are booming in both developed and emerging economies due to their low cost, convenience, and the fast growth in online shopping. Based on field surveys and robust modeling for years 2007 to 2018, in this study to the best of our knowledge for the first time to the best of our knowledge, estimated the generation of scrap packaging materials and quantify the GHG emissions from logistics and transportation of express deliveries in China from 2007 to 2018.

Results

Conclusion