Abstract
The article considers the impact of national climate policy on the development of the Russian economy and energy sector. Implementation of an aggressive scenario (which is aimed at containing at any cost the rise in global temperature within 1.5 °C compared to the pre-industrial era) is unacceptable to Russia from socioeconomic perspective given it leads to lowering the average annual GDP growth rate by 1.8 percentage points by 2050. Effective long-term development strategy with low GHG emissions level should focus on structural and technological modernization of the economy; improve the absorption potential of the LULUCF sector; stimulate only those structural changes in the energy sector that involve production and technological chains within the country and do not provide for excessive price growth. Russia retains a significant potential for energy efficiency growth, and the necessary condition for activating this process is sustainable economic growth as it involves modernization of the production facilities and using available and competitive industrial capacities. The implementation of a reasonable scenario, based on these principles, would allow Russia to fulfil the nationally determined contributions within the Paris Agreement while ensuring economic growth at the rate not less than the global average one.
Highlights
The climate agenda and the goal of transferring the world economy on a development trajectory characterized by low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the priority areas in the modern world politics
In order to analyze the economic efficiency of different measures of decarbonizing the Russian economy, we used a system of macrostructural models developed at the IEF RAS
Russia needs the long-term development strategy with low GHG emissions level focused on improving the quality of living, modernizing and increasing the competitiveness of the national economy
Summary
The climate agenda and the goal of transferring the world economy on a development trajectory characterized by low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is one of the priority areas in the modern world politics. The carbon intensity of consumed energy on the global scale has changed little over the past almost 30 years (and it has not decreased but increased by 0.4%). This is the reason why the lowcarbon strategies developed and adopted in different countries, while continuing to rely heavily on the energy efficiency, are trying at the same time to activate the “structural” factor, promoting ideas for a complete transition to the energy system based on renewables, electrification (including transport) and hydrogen technologies. The only question is which of the existing measures are effective in the Russian conditions and which are not
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