Low autonomic arousal as a risk factor for reoffending: A population-based study.

Sofi Oskarsson,Ralf Kuja-Halkola,Adrian Raine,Antti Latvala,Catherine Tuvblad,Henrik Larsson,Bridget M Bertoldi,Miguel Garcia-Argibay,Anneli Andersson,Christopher J Patrick,Petri Böckerman

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0256250

Abstract

BackgroundLow resting heart rate (RHR) and low systolic blood pressure (SBP) are associated with criminal behavior. However, knowledge is lacking about their predictive value for reoffending.AimWe aimed to examine associations of RHR and SBP with reoffending in a large population-based sample.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study of all convicted male conscripts born in Sweden 1958–1990 (N = 407,533). We obtained data by linking Swedish population-based registers. Predictor variables were RHR and SBP, measured at conscription which was mandatory until 2010 for men at age 18. The outcome variable was reoffending, defined as criminal convictions (any crime, violent crime and non-violent crime), obtained from the National Crime Register. We used survival analyses to test for associations of RHR and SBP with reoffending, adjusting for pertinent covariates such as socioeconomic status, height, weight and physical energy capacity.ResultsIn fully adjusted Cox regression models, men with lower RHR (≤60 bpm) had higher risk of reoffending (any crime: HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19, violent crime: HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.29, non-violent crime: HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.19), compared to men with higher RHR (≥ 82 bpm). Men with lower SBP (≤80 mmHg) had higher risk of reoffending (any crime: HR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.17, 1.21, violent crime: HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.20, non-violent crime: HR = 1.20, 95% CI: 1.18, 1.22), compared to men with higher SBP (≥138 mmHg).ConclusionsLow autonomic arousal is associated with increased risk of reoffending. RHR and SBP should be investigated further as potential predictors for reoffending as they each may have predictive value in risk assessment protocols.

Highlights

Reoffending poses a significant burden on society and constitutes a serious public health problem [1]
In fully adjusted Cox regression models, men with lower resting heart rate (RHR) ( 60 bpm) had higher risk of reoffending, compared to men with higher RHR ( 82 bpm)
The results showed no association between low RHR and reoffending, but attenuated heart rate reactivity and increased heart rate variability with a stressor task did predict a higher likelihood of reoffending over a 5-year follow-up period

Summary

Introduction

Reoffending (i.e., being convicted of a criminal offense more than once) poses a significant burden on society and constitutes a serious public health problem [1]. There are over 300 risk assessment protocols incorporating known risk factors for reoffending (e.g., history of criminal behavior, employment) [2], they show low to moderate positive predictive value and high negative predictive value [3]. Studies using large scale population-based data have shown that low resting heart rate (RHR) increases the risk for criminal behavior [5, 6], an association confirmed in a meta-analysis [7]. A recent family-based study extended these findings by presenting evidence that the association between RHR and criminal behavior was largely due to familial confounding (i.e., genetic and environmental factors influencing both pulse and crime), whereas RHR directly increased the risk for anxiety/ depression [9]. Knowledge is lacking about their predictive value for reoffending

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