Abstract
IntroductionChronic liver disease (CLD) or Cirrhosis is one of the most common causes of morbidity as well as mortality. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) are useful to assess the long-term prognosis of a patient with CLD. When a patient with CLD is admitted with an acute illness leading to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), these scores may not be reliable to predict the short-term prognosis and survival. Absolute eosinophils count (AEC) allows the rapid identification of patients at increased risk for sepsis-related mortality in patients.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study conducted among patients in a tertiary care hospital in South India during a period of one and a half years between October 2018 and April 2020. Cirrhotic patients with SIRS aged between 16 years and 80 years were included in the study. AEC was measured as a part of automated complete blood counts. Patient demographics, lab parameters, and outcomes in terms of mortality were studied. Continuous variables were expressed as mean ± SD/median and categorical variables were expressed in frequency. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to find an ideal cutoff for AEC in predicting hospital mortality. Multi-variate Cox regression analysis was performed to find predictors of mortality.ResultsA total of 100 patients who fit the pre-determined criteria for cirrhosis with SIRS were enrolled in the study. Sixteen (16%) patients died at the end of the study while 84 (84%) were alive. Using a ROC curve, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.716 with 95% CI of AUC (0.564-0.867), the p-value was found to 0.006, a cut-off of eosinophil count of 198.5 cells/uL was found to be the cut-off for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in this subset of patients with cirrhosis and sepsis with SIRS, with a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 38.1%. In a multi-variate Cox regression analysis, only age (hazard ratio {HR}: 1.175, 95%CI, 1.084 to 1.275, p<0.001) , CRP (HR : 1.008, 95%CI, 1.00 to 1.015, p=0.042) values, total leukocyte counts (TLC) (HR: 1.226, 95%CI, 1.116 to 1.346, p<0.001) and AEC (HR: 0.993, 95%CI, 0.987 to 0.999, p=0.016) were found to be statistically significant independent predictors of mortality.ConclusionsThe presence of eosinopenia may be considered as an in-expensive warning biomarker for poorer clinical outcomes in the form of in-hospital mortality in hospitalized cirrhotic patients. Other biomarkers such as CRP and TLC could also play a role both independently and in conjunction with AEC to predict outcomes and mortality in cirrhotic patients with sepsis and SIRS.
Highlights
Chronic liver disease (CLD) or Cirrhosis is one of the most common causes of morbidity as well as mortality
Using a Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the area under the curve (AUC) was 0.716 with 95% CI of AUC (0.564-0.867), the p-value was found to 0.006, a cut-off of eosinophil count of 198.5 cells/uL was found to be the cut-off for the prediction of in-hospital mortality in this subset of patients with cirrhosis and sepsis with systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), with a sensitivity of 75% and specificity of 38.1%
In a multi-variate Cox regression analysis, only age, CRP (HR : 1.008, 95%CI, 1.00 to 1.015, p=0.042) values, total leukocyte counts (TLC) (HR: 1.226, 95%CI, 1.116 to 1.346, p
Summary
Chronic liver disease (CLD) or Cirrhosis is one of the most common causes of morbidity as well as mortality. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score and the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) are useful to assess the long-term prognosis of a patient with CLD. When a patient with CLD is admitted with an acute illness leading to systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), these scores may not be reliable to predict the short-term prognosis and survival. Absolute eosinophils count (AEC) allows the rapid identification of patients at increased risk for sepsis-related mortality in patients
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