Abstract
Economic losses from public bathing beaches, due to the potential threat of sea level rise (SLR), require economic analysis in order to find appropriate remedies. Three of the main Mediterranean public bathing beaches of Israel were selected as a case study. To calculate the morphological impact of SLR, a modification of the Bruun Rule was used for the current study. This rule is a two-dimensional model that estimates the cross-shore landward and upward displacement of a beach in response to SLR. By using a benefits-transfer approach, consumer surpluses from other areas were adjusted to the Israeli beaches. The latest report of the Fifth Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that by the end of the twenty-first century sea level will be 0.26 to 0.98 m higher than at present. Based on this assessment the value loss for each beach was calculated for SLR from 0.2 m to 1.0 m at 0.2 m intervals. It is likely that Dado beach (Haifa) will be severely damaged or even lost by 0.4 m SLR, while Tel Aviv Promenade and Ashdod beaches would be severely affected by 1.0 m SLR. Overall the annual losses of public benefits are estimated to be NIS 122 million ($31 million) and NIS 416 million ($104 million) for values of 0.2 m and 1.0 m SLR respectively.
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