Lost life expectancy following a hypothetical urban radiological incident

Abstract

The consequences of mass radiological events, particularly those involving the activation of a radiological dispersion device (RDD), have been extensively studied by scientific groups. However, the critical initial period of such an event, usually spanning the first 100 h, can be characterized by a scarcity of information, potentially leading to delays in mitigating strategies. In response, a research group utilized computer simulations to generate solid, conservative analytical details that can aid decision-making and guide the prioritization of initial care based on variables such as age, sex, location, and local atmospheric stability conditions. The study estimates the Lost Life Expectancy (LLE) and provides relevant information to increase support for decision-making and allow evaluation of data closer to the lay public. The research team behind the study has been granted funding by the Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq), and further simulations will be conducted utilizing codes that implement numerical models, specifically in atmospheric data forecasting. The methodology used to evaluate the LLE can be applied to any location, provided that the relevant variables are updated accordingly. Overall, this study offers critical insights into the impact of mass radiological events and enhances simulations' predictive capacity and precision.