Lost at high latitudes: Arctic and endemic plants under threat as climate warms

Annina Kaisa Johanna Niskanen,Pekka Niittynen,Jeff Diez,Juha Aalto,Miska Luoto,Henry Väre

doi:10.1111/ddi.12889

Annina Kaisa Johanna Niskanen, Pekka Niittynen + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12889

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Abstract

AbstractAimSpecies’ biogeographical patterns are already being altered by climate change. Here, we provide predictions of the impacts of a changing climate on species’ geographical ranges within high‐latitude mountain flora on a sub‐continental scale. We then examined the forecasted changes in relation to species’ biogeographic histories.LocationFennoscandia, Northern Europe (55–72°N).MethodsWe examined the sensitivity of 164 high‐latitude mountain species to changing climate by modelling their distributions in regard to climate, local topography and geology at a 1 km2 resolution. Using an ensemble of six statistical modelling techniques and data on current (1981–2010) and future (2070–2099) climate based on three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 8.5), we developed projections of current and future ranges.ResultsThe average species richness of the mountain flora is predicted to decrease by 15%–47% per 1 km2 cell, depending on the climate scenario considered. Arctic flora is projected to undergo severe range loss along with non‐poleward range contractions, while alpine flora is forecasted to find suitable habitat in a warmer North. A substantial majority (71%–92%) of the studied species are projected to lose more than half of their present range by the year 2100. Species predicted to lose all suitable habitat had ranges centred in the northernmost (>68°N) part of continental Europe.Main conclusionsClimate change is predicted to substantially diminish the extent and richness of Europe's high‐latitude mountain flora. Interestingly, species' biogeographic histories affect their vulnerability to climate change. The vulnerability of true Arctic and endemic species marks them as highly important for conservation decisions.

Highlights

The flora of the high‐latitude mountains of Europe is an interesting mix of species with different biogeographic histories from the true Arctic and mid‐latitude mountains
We explore the implications of three possible future Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 (Van Vuuren et al, 2011)
The centre of gravity (COG) range shifts predicted for RCP 4.5 show that the consequences of climate change vary according to biogeographic history (Table 1; See Supporting Information Appendix S6)

Summary

| INTRODUCTION

The flora of the high‐latitude mountains of Europe is an interesting mix of species with different biogeographic histories from the true Arctic and mid‐latitude mountains. Complexities and uncertainties are emphasized in regional findings of cold‐adapted plant species richness in the Scandes Mountains ranging from increases (Klanderud & Birks, 2003) to losses (Engler et al, 2011; Wilson & Nilsson, 2009) and stability (Vanneste et al, 2017). Though the Scandes flora is predicted to be less sensitive to climate change than other European florae (Engler et al, 2011), with northern range margins potentially exhibiting strong local adaptation (Vergeer & Kunin, 2012), it is believed that mountainous Fennoscandia will experience species loss (Lenoir et al, 2008; Thuiller et al, 2005). Predictions of range contractions were used to define the species expected to become threatened by climate change by the end of this century

| METHODS

Findings

| DISCUSSION