Abstract

ABSTRACT Land use changes are related to urbanization, economics and technology, influencing the management of natural resources and the ecosystem processes. The present study evaluated the behavior of land use changes in the period of 2007 and 2016, and identified the influence of these changes on the Atlantic Forest vegetation and the expected consequences for a future scenario in the short (2020) and medium term (2025). The study was developed in the Una river basin, located in southeastern Brazil. Land use mapping was performed using Landsat 5 and Sentinel-2A satellite imagery, with visual interpretation techniques. The assessment of land use changes and ecological losses was modeled in the Land Change Modeler and the gains and losses for each category and their future scenarios were identified. The calculations of landscape metrics were performed with the V-LATE extension for ArcGIS. The Anthropogenic Exposure Indicator was applied to evaluate the exposure of fragments. The comparative between land uses showed an increase of 484.33 ha of anthropogenic areas and a decrease of 484.14 ha of vegetation. The greater conversion of forests to other uses was related to agriculture. The fragments are under intense edge effect and 13.70% are under high anthropogenic exposure. By 2016, a loss of 484 ha of Atlantic Forest was identified, being expected a loss of 694.11 ha by 2020 and of 934.10 ha by 2025.

Highlights

  • Land use changes are considered exogenous changes caused by factors inherent in urbanization, economics and technology, directly influencing the management of natural resources and the ecosystem processes

  • The basin contributes significantly to the formation of the Itupararanga reservoir, which is the main source of water supply for municipalities in the region, and an area of economic interest due to agricultural expansion, containing fragments of native forests and proximity to the Environmental Protection Areas (EPAs) of Serra do Mar, Corumbataí, Botucatu and Tejupá

  • The comparative analysis between land use maps showed an increase of 484.33 ha of anthropogenic areas for the period evaluated

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

Land use changes are considered exogenous changes caused by factors inherent in urbanization, economics and technology, directly influencing the management of natural resources and the ecosystem processes. Studies of land use changes in biodiversity hotspots in Brazil are focused on the Amazon, showing the trends of the impact of the conversion of vegetation to areas for the productive economic sector in the north of the country (Maeda et al, 2011; Arvor et al, 2017; Carvalho et al, 2017) Consequences of this forest reduction and fragmentation have revealed the impairment of services and products provided by the ecosystem, inducing isolation and susceptibility to fires, invasion of exotic species and interference in evolutionary processes through which diversity originates (Ehrlich; Wilson, 1991, Santos Filho, 1995; Myers; Knoll, 2001; Carranza et al, 2017; Leite et al, 2017). The present work sought to evaluate the behavior of land use changes in the period of 2007 and 2016, to identify the influence of these changes on the Atlantic Forest vegetation and the consequences expected for a future scenario in the short (2020) and medium term (2025)

MATERIAL AND METHODS
RESULTS AND DISCUSSION
Results
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