Loss Severity on Residential Mortgages: Evidence from Freddie Mac’s Newest Data

Abstract

In this article we analyze new loan-level data recently released by Freddie Mac on more than 17 million single-family mortgages to reveal a range of new and useful insights into the ultimate financial losses associated with a loan after it experiences a credit event. We conclude that mortgage insurance significantly lowers loss severities. We show that actual loss severities are higher than the preset severity schedule for loans with a loan-to-value (LTV) ratio of 60-80, relatively accurate for higher-LTV loans. We also find that small loans have higher severity than larger loans, that real-estate-owned (REO) sales have higher severity than short sales, and that there is no stable relationship between the state of origination and severity. Finally, we review the components of loss -- liquidation value, direct expenses, and lost interest -- and find that direct expenses and loss interest contribute significantly to the ultimate loss.