Loss Recoveries, Realized Excess Returns, and Credit Rationing in the Commercial Mortgage Market

Abstract

In this paper we exploit loan level data combining foreclosure histories with information about the revenues and expenses associated with the ongoing management and eventual sale of financially distressed loans to estimate the magnitude of realized excess returns on commercial mortgages. Our findings are striking. We find that average realized excess returns on commercial mortgages are the lowest at the best times a la Stiglitz and Weiss (Am. Econ. Rev., 71:393–409, 1981). We also find that excess realized returns on commercial mortgages are low when lenders are swamped with funds (which we measure by the volume of commercial mortgage commitments) and when promised spreads are low.