Loss or gain: A spatial regression analysis of switching land conversions between agriculture and natural land

Abstract

This article comprehensively investigates the gains and losses between agriculture and natural land in the case of the Edmonton–Calgary Corridor, Canada. Using remote sensing data from 2000 to 2012, factors that drive land-use conversions, including environmental and socio-economic characteristics, are explored. This study also adopts spatial techniques to allow for neighborhood effects from land-use activities in neighboring areas. Key findings include the following: higher land suitability hinders the process of agricultural land abandonment; road density prohibits agricultural land conversion to natural land; the implementation of conservation sites protects land in its natural status; and land-use activities have strong neighborhood effects on nearby regions. Incorporating spatial interactions can generate less biased empirical results and provide more accurate policy recommendations. In addition, an investigation of bi-directional land-use transitions helps to better understand the associated gains and losses between agriculture and natural land and offers further insights into the effectiveness of preservation programs that aim to protect wild space and maintain ecological balance.