Loss of load probability for power systems based on renewable sources

Abstract

An increasing number of small and variable power sources, such as wind and solar power plants, are being integrated into power systems, potentially affecting their reliability. This study was aimed at developing a method for evaluating reliability in terms of the loss of load probability. To this end, an algorithm capable of assessing the expanded role of renewable sources in the power system was established, which could take into account the specific roles and features of wind, solar, and hydro power plants, including pumped storage hydro power plants. Various models were developed and tested to closely emulate real power system behavior. A regional power system was evaluated over multiple years. The results indicated that the reliability of power systems fluctuates with the available capacity of renewable resources. These findings provide a foundation for a more precise specification of power reserves in such systems to prevent excessive reduction in reliability.