Abstract
Bridges are important infrastructures for urban growth and the economic development of a country, because bridges allow a large volume of logistics and transportation by connecting rivers, canyons, islands and lands. As such, massive resources including financial, material and human resources are invested for bridge construction and management. However, although the latest bridge construction is undergoing rapid development of new technologies and designs, the management and prevention of risks still tend to rely on qualitative practices, which, as a result, calls for more quantified and systematic measurement and, thus, more sustainable management of potential risks. As part of efforts in managing risks to achieve quantitative risk management, this study aimed to predict losses of financial resources by identifying statistically significant risk factors based on the past record of insurance claim payouts (compensation for a loss that occurred as a result of a material damage in bridge construction projects) from a major insurance company in Korea, and conducted a multiple regression analysis to identify the loss indicators and to develop a loss estimation model. The statistical analysis confirmed that superstructure types, superstructure construction methods, and construction duration are the three significant risk factors that affects financial losses of bridge construction projects among the seven variables adopted as independent variables, which included the superstructure type, maximum span length, superstructure construction method, foundation type, floods, typhoons, and construction duration. Such findings, and the consequentially developed risk prediction model of this study, will contribute to sustainable construction management through cost reduction by predicting and preventing the future financial loss factors of bridge construction.
Highlights
As the sizes of recent construction projects grow and the methods of construction become highly diversified, a variety of uncertainties are on an increasing trend, accompanied by many new risk factors
In bridge construction, various accidents occur, which can result in significant human injuries and material damages, because bridge construction is exposed to various types of risks that tend to be more extreme and severe than those of other types of construction sites, due to environmental conditions such as streams, rivers, and canyons, as well as work conditions such as high place work and heavy equipment operations
This study aims to first identify the statistically significant risk factors in bridge construction projects inherent in the process from onset to completion and to present a risk prediction model, while reflecting the actual record of damages which occurred in bridge construction projects, both of which aim to achieve sustainable risk management
Summary
As the sizes of recent construction projects grow and the methods of construction become highly diversified, a variety of uncertainties are on an increasing trend, accompanied by many new risk factors. Risk management measures should identify various risk factors throughout the whole process of the construction in advance, in order to estimate and analyze the extent of the potential damages and losses according to their causes, based on as minimal information as reasonably possible [5,6,7,8]. With this background, the purpose of this study is to provide the risk prediction model that can contribute to minimizing risks in more systematical and evidence-based way. This study aims to first identify the statistically significant risk factors in bridge construction projects inherent in the process from onset to completion and to present a risk prediction model, while reflecting the actual record of damages which occurred in bridge construction projects, both of which aim to achieve sustainable risk management
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