Losing ground: projections of climate-driven bloom shifts and their implications for the future of California’s almond orchards

Abstract

Climate change is expected to impact the spring phenology of perennial trees, potentially altering the suitability of land for their cultivation. In this study, we investigate the effects of climate change on the bloom timing of almond orchards, focusing on California, the world's leading region for almond production. By analyzing historical climatic data, employing a model that considers hourly temperatures and fall non-structural carbohydrates to predict bloom dates, and examining various Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) scenarios, we assess the potential impacts of climate shifts on plant phenology and, consequently, on land suitability for almond farming. Our findings reveal that, within the next 30 years, the land suitable for almond production will not undergo significant changes. However, under unchanged emission scenarios, the available land to support almond orchard farming could decline between 48 to 73% by the end of the century. This reduction corresponds with an early shift in bloom time from the average Day of Year (DOY) 64 observed over the past 40 years to a projected earlier bloom between DOY 28–33 by 2100. These results emphasize the critical role climate shifts have in shaping future land use strategies for almond production in Central Valley, California. Consequently, understanding and addressing these factors is essential for the sustainable management and preservation of agricultural land, ensuring long-term food security and economic stability in the face of a rapidly changing climate.