Losers’ Consent in Changing Welfare States: Output Dissatisfaction, Experienced Voice and Political Distrust

Staffan Kumlin,Lisanne de Blok

doi:10.1177/0032321721993646

Staffan Kumlin, Lisanne de Blok

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1177/0032321721993646

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Abstract

Mature welfare states must increasingly handle growing fiscal pressures and a multitude of needs with smaller resources. Meanwhile, evaluations of policy outputs are characterized as ‘the weakest link’ in welfare state support, resulting in generalized political distrust. We assess the procedural fairness argument that citizens are not only concerned with welfare state outcomes but also assess the fairness of the processes of service delivery. The fairness perspective has usually been tested in cross-sectional studies, experiments or on the ‘input side’ of democracy. By contrast, we use primary three-wave panel data on evaluations and experiences with welfare state institutions. The random-effects within-between framework allows improved causal evidence that both outputs (service quality satisfaction) and procedural fairness (experienced voice opportunities) affect political trust. Crucially, however, perceived fairness mitigates detrimental effects of poor outcomes. This is because procedural voice matters, especially for the formation of political trust among losers.

Highlights

Mature Western welfare states have long faced slowly growing challenges and resource scarcity
Our third hypothesis focuses on between-person variation where we expect that individual differences in welfare state services satisfaction have a smaller effect on political trust among people with more positive perceptions of procedural fairness (H3)
We study individual changes over time and predict that a decline in welfare state services satisfaction has a smaller effect on change in political trust if at the same time perceived procedural fairness was increasing (H4)

Summary

Introduction

Mature Western welfare states have long faced slowly growing challenges and resource scarcity. Our third hypothesis focuses on between-person variation where we expect that individual differences in welfare state services satisfaction have a smaller effect on political trust among people with more positive perceptions of procedural fairness (H3).

Results

Conclusion