Los Datos Sobre COVID-19 en México: Un Modelo Para Armar

Abstract

This essay reviews the main sources of public access information on the development of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico; what have been the concepts they have handled and their operational definition; what its characteristics, scope and limitations; what data has been provided in each source; how a certain data source is linked with others and how this makes it possible, within accuracy margins that leave space for speculation, the construction of a statistical model that enables a comprehensive and coherent estimation of the incidents of cases and deaths caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the consequences caused in the health of the population of Mexico by this pandemic. Although with the data directly provided in a database by the health authorities of the country it is possible to know the volume of cases confirmed as positive for SARS-CoV-2 through various methods, this information only accounts for part of the phenomenon and leaves hides the real magnitude of the pandemic. Therefore, the expansion of cases from alternative sources is necessary, as at the time was the results of the sentinel model and more recently the data from the National Survey of Health and Nutrition COVID-19 and the count of excess mortality according to the registration of death certificates carried out by various public institutions in a coordinated manner. These sources allow corroborating that at the close of the first year of the pandemic, just under half of the country’s population, 60 million people, had been infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 and the volume of deaths added to normal reached almost300 thousand people.