Abstract
We observed wide variation in the incidence of confirmed COVID-19 cases in 300 communities making up Los Angeles County, the largest county by population in the United States. The surge in incidence from October 19, 2020 to January 10, 2021, accounting for two-thirds of all confirmed cases since the start of the epidemic, was concentrated in communities with a high prevalence of multi-generational households. This indicator of household structure was a more important predictor of the surge in incidence than the prevalence of households with low income or with at least one high-risk worker. Based upon a spatial adaptation of the standard SIR model, the cumulative incidence of COVID-19, adjusted for underascertainment of both asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, ranged from under 10% in low multi-generational communities to over 30% in high multi-generational communities.
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