Lord Stanhope's papers on the Doctrine of Chances

Abstract

The Centre for Kentish Studies in Maidstone, Kent holds the mathematical manuscripts of Philip Stanhope (1714–1786), second Earl of Stanhope. He was an active and capable amateur mathematician. Although the manuscripts cover a wide range of mathematical topics, the current article focuses only on Stanhope's work in probability, where his interests appear to be on the theoretical rather than the applied side of the subject. His work, mainly derived from De Moivre's The Doctrine of Chances and Montmort's Essay d'analyse sur les jeux de hazard, touches on the major probability problems of the day. Among the notes on these two authors there is work that includes an alternate solution to the theory of runs and a simplified solution to a special case of the problem of the duration of play, related to the gambler's ruin problem. In addition, the manuscript collection contains Stanhope's transcription of an incorrect solution to the theory of runs by Thomas Bayes. There is also some correspondence with Sir Alexander Cuming that touches on George Berkeley's criticism of Isaac Newton's development of the calculus.