Loop Plant Modeling: Cost Models for Loop Plant Work Operations Using Semi-Markov Processes

Abstract

An important consideration in making economic evaluations of proposed loop plant relief, rearrangement and rehabilitation projects is the cost of loop plant work operations performed by splicers, installers, repair personnel, and support personnel. Using a semi-Markov process with states corresponding to activities performed during the work operation, probability distributions of the cost of work operations are obtained as a function of various plant conditions such as record error rates and defective pair rates. Transition probabilities and state delays are estimated using various plant reports and field data. A computer program calculates the distribution of the cost. A numerical example illustrates how the model can be used by determining the dependence of cable transfer costs on the number of pairs transferred and the percentage of working circuits transferred.