Looking through a crystal ball: Understanding the future of Vietnam's minerals and mining industry

Abstract

This paper examines what might happen to the mining industry in Vietnam over the next decade. Using production figures up until 2019, results indicate that the total production of eight key minerals will sharply increase across the nation. However, production of some individual minerals, such as bauxite, iron, phosphate, and coal are forecast to increase in the immediate future. By contrast, gold is predicted to decrease while production rates for lead, zinc and tin are projected to remain unchanged. Despite these shifts, it is expected that the mining industry will remain a key sector of the economy regarding revenue contribution over the next decade. Due to pressures such as debt liabilities, increased public spending and high mineral demand from China, the Vietnamese government will continue to support the mining industry. However, Vietnam's "resource curse" and its volatility have created adverse impacts, which we argue, has resulted in a dependency on mineral extraction that requires a focus on national economic diversity. Additionally, in Vietnam's current milieu, law reform, dominant limitation of State-owned Enterprises (SOEs) and reducing corruption in the mining sector, are acknowledged as critical for developing a mining industry that is competitive and attracts increased FDI into the future.