Looking Outside, or Turning Northwest? On the Meaning and External Dimension of Egypt's Infitah 1971-1980

Abstract

The argument here is that infitah is not a forcing open of a previously closed economy, but a restructuring of its economic relations. Egypt is not simply looking outside but, rather, turning northwest toward the United States and Europe. Internal evidence of this new orientation is presented and its implications explored, especially the regional and international influence of such agencies as the Consultative Group, the International Monetary Fund, and foreign banks—the latter a type of external influence also strongly affecting Egypt in the altered paths of development in the previous century. The conclusion is that in Egypt a 19th century type of specialization is developing, one emphasizing oil, the Suez Canal, and tourism as the leading sectors. These, and whatever productive enterprises are established, will be of the capital-intensive type not apt to generate many employment opportunities. Labor's share of the Gross Domestic Product will tend to fall, comprador-propertied-landed classes will reemerge and gain strength. Social disadvantages will tend to widen and may in fact invite social unrest and mounting political repression.