Looking for the missing link: Driving restriction, car trips, and air pollution in Beijing

Abstract

Driving restriction policy is a commonly used measure to control congestion and air pollution in many large cities across the globe. The growing international literature that empirically investigates the effect of this policy on air quality yields conflicting findings. Yet, existing studies tend to overlook individual travel reactions to the driving restriction policies, although the policies are designed to reduce travel directly. To fill this gap, this study uses individual-level travel survey data to trace out environmental consequences of driving restriction policy through its direct effect on individual driving behavior. The new analytical framework addresses the endogeneity problem and obtains consistent estimates of the coefficients of interest, by using exogenous variables and a two-stage estimation. The point estimates suggest that, in the short run, driving restriction policy does not affect the total concentrations of PM2.5 pollutants. This insignificant relationship between driving restriction policy and air quality suggests adaptive individual behavior in response to rigid policies and calls for innovative approaches to address driving-related air pollution. • The first study on environmental impact of driving policy via personal auto-trips • The change of air pollution level is used to capture marginal environmental effect. • Robustness tests are conducted to assess the sensitivity of the estimates. • Results show that driving restriction policy can’t reduce pollution in short term.