Looking for Individual-Level Evidence for the Ethnic Security Dilemma Revisited: A Study of Balochistan

Abstract

We look for micro-level evidence of the security dilemma in Pakistan’s Balochistan province using data derived from a 2011/2012, nationally representative survey of 16,279 Pakistanis as well as 2017 Pakistani census data. Using mixed effects generalized linear model for a binary dependent variable to identify determinants of individual perceptions of insecurity, we find that respondents who distrust the government are significantly more likely to feel insecure. Respondents in districts with greater in-group shares are significantly less insecure while those residing in districts with greater out-group share feel more insecure. We find modest evidence that cross-cutting cleavages can mitigate perceived insecurity.