Looking for evidence of the middle-income trap. The case of Polish trade in high-tech goods with Germany

Abstract

Research on the transition of post-communist economies has long been aimed at the identification of obstacles to growth. The idea behind this article relates to the paradigm of the middle-income trap and its characteristics. We adopt this conceptual framework because the economic position of Poland is determined by the nature of global value chains, its geographical proximity to Germany and the inflow of foreign direct investments which sustain cost and efficiency advantages and foster technological dependence. We embark on an analysis of trade in high-tech goods with a particular emphasis placed on Polish–German relations in the most significant sectors: machinery, electrical and electronic equipment. The results show tendencies typical for the middle-income trap, which has particular implications for the development of the semi-peripheral Polish economy.