Looking back at the causes of 25-year crop yield stagnation in Europe

Abstract

Across the world, but especially in Europe, staple crop yields have been stagnating since the mid-1990s, when breakpoints appeared in wheat, maize, and barley yield evolution. We look back here at recent evidence about the most likely causes for crop yield stagnation. If crop yields had followed the 1950-1990 trend in Europe, they would now be 20% higher than in the 1990s, when they started stagnating. Climate change reasonably explains one third of the difference. Recent research shows that increased crop diversity sustains crop yields more effectively than monoculture, but there is to date no estimate in the literature by how much. Finally, the literature suggests that the provision of ecosystem services could help break up crop yield stagnation but to an extent that is not yet quantified.