"Look at Me, I Plan to Quit Smoking": Bayesian Hierarchical Analysis of Adolescent Smokers' Intention to Quit Smoking.

John N Ng’Ombe,N Rodgers Nedson,Novan F P Tembo

doi:10.3390/healthcare8020076

John N Ng’Ombe, N Rodgers Nedson + Show 1 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/healthcare8020076

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Abstract

The tobacco epidemic is one of the most prominent public health threats the world has ever faced. Public health policy that seeks to limit the problem may have to target not only the price of tobacco but also the initiation stage in a smoker’s life—the adolescent stage. Most research on teen smoking focuses on initiation and other stories. Moreover, what determines the desire to quit smoking among teens is not well understood, even though planning to quit smoking is an important stage toward successful cessation. This research contributes to healthcare literature by using Bayesian hierarchical techniques, estimated using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) and its extension, the No-U-Turn Sampler (NUTS), to empirically identify what drives the intention to quit smoking among teen smokers in Zambia. Results suggest that, among the junior secondary school-going adolescent smokers in Zambia, about 63% have plans to quit smoking. We find socio-demographic characteristics and several tobacco-smoking-related factors as salient drivers of adolescent smokers’ plans to quit smoking. For policymaking, we recommend that school-going teen smokers should have access to smoking cessation aids to help them quit smoking. Most importantly, increased awareness of dangers of smoking, advice by health professionals, stringent public policies on smoking, as well as parental guidance could be useful to help adolescent smokers realize their quitting plans.

Highlights

While the tobacco use problem is more prevalent in developed countries, tobacco use is rising in many developing countries [1,2]
While the tobacco use problem is more prevalent in developed countries, smoking rates are rising in most developing countries, and projection rates indicate high pervasiveness rates of around 39%
This research contributes to the health economics literature by using Bayesian hierarchical techniques to empirically identify what drives the intentions to quit smoking among adolescent smokers

Summary

Introduction

While the tobacco use problem is more prevalent in developed countries, tobacco use is rising in many developing countries [1,2]. For. Zambia, a Southern African country, tobacco use is on the rise in part due to lower cigarette pricing and tax rates than other countries in SSA [5]. About 39% of Zambian smokers smoke such brands as roll-your-own rather than factory-made cigarettes, and among them, about 88% say they do so because it is cheaper [3]. This means that, like most smokers, adolescents may not find it hard to access tobacco in Zambia and other developing countries in SSA. Based on the 2007 Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS), 10.5% of Zambian students aged between 13 and 15 years were smokers [7]

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