Long-term trends of precipitation in Europe in different datasets

Abstract

<p>It is already a well known fact that different types of climate datasets (station, gridded, reanalyses) and even individual datasets differ in how they describe statistical properties of climate variables. Here we compare precipitation trends in Europe between station data (taken from the ECA&D database), gridded data (E-OBS and CRU TS), and reanalyses (JRA-55 and NCEP/NCAR) for period 1961-2011, both annually and for individual seasons. Theil-Sen non-parametric trend estimator is used for the quantification of the trend magnitude; Mann-Kendall test is used to evaluate the significance of trends.</p><p>On the annual basis, station data indicate precipitation increases in northern Europe and decreases in southern and southeastern Europe. Whereas trends in the gridded datasets roughly agree with station data, reanalyses provide much more negative trends with a different geographical distribution. There is a tendency for reanalyses to overestimate precipitation in the beginning of the period at some places, whereas they underestimate precipitation near the end of the period elsewhere. The disagreement among different data types and datasets is larger in all seasonal analyses except winter. Particularly notable is an excessive drying trend in central, southwestern, and southeastern Europe in NCEP/NCAR in most seasons. Reanalyses thus do not appear to be suitable data sources for estimation of precipitation trends.  </p><p>Reasons for the disagreement are varied and are conjectured by a detailed examination of station / point or regional time series: station series may suffer from inhomogeneities; gridded data may be affected by different sets of stations entering the interpolation procedure at different times; while reanalyses may be affected by different kinds of data being assimilated into them in different periods.</p>