Long-term trends in livestock and wildlife interactions: do livestock numbers predict recent trends of wolves, foxes, and rodents’ populations in Mongolian rangelands?

Abstract

The Mongolian plateau is a hotspot for mammals and a perfect environment for nomadic herding. The long-term co-existence with the local wildlife is nowadays threatened by a recent drastic increase of livestock numbers, and associated modifications in the ecosystems. Official hunting and livestock data were used to understand historical links between certain selected species (grey wolf, red fox, corsac fox, ground squirrels and marmots, vs. cattle, sheep, goat, horses and camels), during the period 1941-1985. Significant interactions appeared, like negative effects of goat numbers on wolves hunting. These models were thereafter used to predict the consequences of the increase of livestock in the period 1986-2015 on wildlife. A sharp decrease of wolves and corsac foxes was predicted, and positive effects on marmots, squirrels and red fox; i.e., beneficial for ecosystem-engineering borrowing species, but negative for predators. These predictions agree with the current situation, except for marmots which are currently declining.