Long-term trend of electric vehicle sales in Thailand

Abstract

Abstract This research study aims at examining the long-term trend of EV sales in Thailand, utilising the system dynamics (SD) modelling approach. This approach is commonly used to model complex systems with causal relationships among key factors within the system. The developed SD model consists of five key factors affecting electric vehicle (EV) sales, namely, the environment, economy, charging infrastructure, government support, and battery maintenance. The simulation results show the increase in EV sales by ten times in the next 20 years with implementation plans related to the five key factors. The government support factor is the most important in enhancing EV sales in the short term. Several government support plans should be initiated to attract more EV consumers, such as subsidies and tax reductions. The environment and charging infrastructure factors are crucial to increasing EV sales in the long term. The enforcement of the CO2 tax and the provision of charging stations all around the country should be established to achieve a sustainable EV market in the long term. This research study contributes to the Thai government and automotive industry to better understand the complex relationships among key factors affecting EV sales. The related sectors may use the study results to plan for EV campaigns to promote the use of EVs and achieve a sustainable EV market.