Long-term time-dependent stochastic modelling of extreme waves

Abstract

This paper presents a literature survey on time-dependent statistical modelling of extreme waves and sea states. The focus is twofold: on statistical modelling of extreme waves and space- and time-dependent statistical modelling. The first part will consist of a literature review of statistical modelling of extreme waves and wave parameters, most notably on the modelling of extreme significant wave height. The second part will focus on statistical modelling of time- and space-dependent variables in a more general sense, and will focus on the methodology and models used also in other relevant application areas. It was found that limited effort has been put on developing statistical models for waves incorporating spatial and long-term temporal variability and it is suggested that model improvements could be achieved by adopting approaches from other application areas. In particular, Bayesian hierarchical space–time models were identified as promising tools for spatio-temporal modelling of extreme waves. Finally, a review of projections of future extreme wave climate is presented.