Long-term temperature variability and death among stroke patients: A cohort study in central Shandong province, China

Abstract

Our current understanding of the repercussions stemming from long-term temperature variability (TV) within the broader context of global climate change remains considerably limited. This study aims to investigate the influence of long-term temperature variability on the probability of death and mortality among stroke patients. For this study, a sample of stroke patients aged 40 years and above between 2016 and 2019 was taken from five districts/counties in central Shandong Province. We calculated the standard deviation (SD) of the annual mean daily temperature and the annual mean diurnal temperature range (DTR) obtained from the baseline survey to express the long-term TV. To assess the link between TV exposure and mortality among stroke patients, we utilized the Cox proportional hazards regression method. This statistical method allowed us to estimate the adjusted hazard ratio (HR) and 95 % confidence interval (CI) with regard to the risk of mortality. For stroke patients, there was a correlation between a 1 °C rise in the SD of temperature and an elevated risk of mortality (HR: 1.18, 95 % CI: 1.08–1.29). Additionally, each 1 °C increase in the DTR was associated with a further increase in the risk of death (HR: 1.69, 95 % CI: 1.59–1.79). In patients diagnosed with ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, DTR was found to be positively associated with the risk of death. Temperature SD was found to be positively associated with the risk of death only in patients with ischemic stroke. Persistent exposure to TV was strongly linked to mortality risk among individuals with stroke. By devoting increased attention to TV, these organizations can develop strategies to mitigate its adverse effects on public health.