Abstract
BackgroundValidation of the use of the lognormal model for predicting long-term survival rates using short-term follow-up data.Methods907 cases of laryngeal cancer were treated from 1973–1977 by radiation and surgery (248), radiation alone (345), and surgery alone (314), in registries of Connecticut and Metropolitan Detroit of the SEER database, with known survival status up to 1999. Phase 1 of this study used the minimum chi-square test to assess the goodness of fit of the survival times of those who died with disease to a lognormal distribution. Phase 2 used the maximum likelihood method to estimate long-term survival rates using short-term follow-up data. In order to validate the lognormal model, the estimated long-term cancer-specific survival rates (CSSR) were compared with the values calculated by the Kaplan-Meier (KM) method using long-term data.ResultsThe 25-year CSSR were predicted to be 72%, 68% and 65% for treatments by radiation and surgery, by radiation alone, and by surgery alone respectively, using short-term follow-up data by the lognormal model. Corresponding results calculated by the KM method were: 72+/-3%, 68+/-3% and 66+/-4% respectively.ConclusionsThe lognormal model was validated for the prediction of the long-term survival rates of laryngeal cancer patients treated by these different methods. The lognormal model may become a useful tool in research on outcomes.
Highlights
Validation of the use of the lognormal model for predicting long-term survival rates using short-term follow-up data
Literature review [1] indicated that local control, laryngeal preservation, and survival rates of larynegeal cancer patients were similar after transoral laser resection, open partial laryngectomy, and radiotherapy
Will radiation combined with surgery give a better result than single modality treatment alone? Will treatment results from the community centers follow published data from prestigious centers? After radiotherapy, radio-resistant cells theoretically may take some time to grow before recurrence
Summary
Validation of the use of the lognormal model for predicting long-term survival rates using short-term follow-up data. Literature review [1] indicated that local control, laryngeal preservation, and survival rates of larynegeal cancer patients were similar after transoral laser resection, open partial laryngectomy, and radiotherapy. Open partial laryngectomy was reserved for patients with locally recurrent tumors. Will radiation combined with surgery give a better result than single modality treatment alone? Will treatment results from the community centers follow published data from prestigious centers? Radio-resistant cells theoretically may take some time to grow before recurrence. Short-term data may not reflect long-term local control and survival rates. We attempt to address these questions in the present study
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