Long-term runoff forecast using BP neural network based on climatic factors and mutual information method in the Qujiang Catchment of China

Abstract

<p>The formation of runoff is extremely complicated, and it is not good enough to forecast the future runoff only by using the previous runoff or meteorological data. In order to improve the forecast precision of the medium and long-term runoff forecast model, a set of forecast factor group is selected from meteorological factors, such as rainfall, temperature, air pressure and the circulation factors released by the National Meteorological Center  using the method of mutual information and principal component analysis respectively. Results of the forecast in the Qujiang Catchment suggest the climatic factor-based BP neural network hydrological forecasting model has a better forecasting effect using the mutual information method than using the principal component analysis method.</p>