Long-term relative survival after primary heart valve replacement.

Abstract

Determination of the optimal timing of primary heart valve replacement is an important issue. The present paper provides a synopsis over early and late survival after primary heart valve replacement, including an evaluation of the excess mortality among heart valve replacement patients compared with the general population. Survival was analyzed in 2365 patients (1568 without and 797 with concomitant coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG)) who underwent their first heart valve replacement. Observed survival was related to that expected among persons from the general Swedish population stratified by age, sex, and 5-year calendar period, to calculate the relative survival and estimate the disease-specific survival. Early mortality (death within 30 days after surgery) was 5.9% after aortic valve replacement, 10.4% after mitral valve replacement and 10.6% after combined aortic and mitral valve replacement. Relative survival rates (excluding early deaths) were 84% 10 years after aortic, 68.5% after mitral and 80.9% after both aortic and mitral valve replacement. A multivariate model based on observed survival rates was produced for each group, using the Cox proportional hazards model. Concomitant CABG, advanced New York Heart Association (NYHA) class, preoperative atrial fibrillation, pure aortic regurgitation and higher age increased the late observed survival after aortic valve replacement. NYHA class was the only factor independently related to observed late deaths after mitral valve replacement, and mitral insufficiency the only corresponding factor after both aortic and mitral valve surgery. The use of relative survival rates tended to modify the difference between subgroups compared with observed survival rates. Relative survival rates reduced the effect of concomitant CABG on survival, but enhanced for example the effect of aortic regurgitation. In patients > or = 70 years of age and patients submitted to aortic or mitral valve replacement with mild or no symptoms, the survival rate was similar for many years to that in the Swedish population at large.