Long-term relationship between climate change and nomadic migration in historical China

Qing Pei,David D Zhang

doi:10.5751/es-06528-190268

Abstract

We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China. By using updated data and statistical methods, the study solved several unanswered questions from past research about the relationship between climate change and the nomadic migration, especially over the long term and on a large spatial scale. The study used correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, and Granger causality analysis to quantitatively verify the following causal pathway: climate change → nomadic migration → conflicts between pastoralists and agriculturalists. In the long term, precipitation was a statistically more influential factor on nomadic migration than temperature in historical China. How climate change affects the migration of nomadic minorities in the long term is theoretically explained based on the Push-Pull model as well as statistical evidence.

Highlights

Climate change and nomadic migration in historical China have been found to be closely related (Fang 1990, Fang and Liu 1992)
We investigated the relationship between a 2000-year history of nomadic migration and climate change in historical China
The nomadic migration in historical China refers to the movements of nomadic people, who were from the steppes of Central Asia, Mongolia, and Eastern Europe and were considered to be barbaric in the past (Bai and Kung 2011)

Summary

Introduction

Climate change and nomadic migration in historical China have been found to be closely related (Fang 1990, Fang and Liu 1992). The nomadic people resided in northern China, and their migration, especially southward migrations, threatened the territory of Han people and other minorities (Fang and Liu 1992). Such nomadic migrations were carefully recorded in the different Chinese historical documents (Ge et al 1997). The GCA proposes a two-variable causal model with two stationary time series, Xt and Yt, with zero means:

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Conclusion