Abstract
In most sports, the development of elite athletes is a long-term process of talent identification and support. Typically, talent selection systems administer a multi-faceted strategy including national coach observations and varying physical and psychological tests when deciding who is chosen for talent development. The aim of this exploratory study was to evaluate the prognostic validity of talent selections by varying groups 10 years after they had been conducted. This study used a unique, multi-phased approach. Phase 1 involved players (n = 68) in 2001 completing a battery of general and sport-specific tests of handball ‘talent’ and performance. In Phase 2, national and regional coaches (n = 7) in 2001 who attended training camps identified the most talented players. In Phase 3, current novice and advanced handball players (n = 12 in each group) selected the most talented from short videos of matches played during the talent camp. Analyses compared predictions among all groups with a best model-fit derived from the motor tests. Results revealed little difference between regional and national coaches in the prediction of future performance and little difference in forecasting performance between novices and players. The best model-fit regression by the motor-tests outperformed all predictions. While several limitations are discussed, this study is a useful starting point for future investigations considering athlete selection decisions in talent identification in sport.
Highlights
One of the most important and difficult tasks in our society is forecasting a person’s potential
Because much of the research design was determined by serendipity as much as it was by conscious planning, we are cautious in how we present these results; given the lack of data on the efficacy of coach/scout decision-making in talent settings, we believe the comparisons provide us with the opportunity to explore the prognostic validity of talent selections over an extended period
A post hoc model fit was calculated on the basis of the motor test data
Summary
One of the most important and difficult tasks in our society is forecasting a person’s potential. This final element was included to compare the expert decisions of the national and regional coaches with advanced performers (i.e., players) and novices (Abernethy et al, 1993) to determine whether the accuracy of prediction was differentiated by skill level Because this comparison was conducted after the talent selection occurred, the amount of information given to these groups was limited. Because much of the research design was determined by serendipity as much as it was by conscious planning, we are cautious in how we present these results; given the lack of data on the efficacy of coach/scout decision-making in talent settings, we believe the comparisons (i.e., the motor tests, coach decisions, and players and novice decisions) provide us with the opportunity to explore the prognostic validity of talent selections over an extended period (cf Vaeyens et al, 2009; Rees et al, 2016)
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
