Abstract
Russian Abstract: Настоящая работа посвящена долгосрочному (до 2100 г.) прогнозированию демографических (численность населения, в том числе, рабочей силы) и макроэкономических (ВВП и производительность труда) параметров в РФ. На основе экономического прогноза МЭР и демографического прогноз Росстата до 2030 г. авторами рассчитываются траектории ВВП и строится демографический сценарный прогноз; в дальнейшем полученные результаты используются при расчете динамики каждой из компонент расходов и доходов бюджетной системы РФ до 2100 г.English Abstract: This paper deals with the long-term (up to 2100) prediction of the demographic (population, including labor) and macroeconomic (GDP and labor productivity) parameters in the Russian Federation. Based on the economic outlook mayor and population projections to 2030 Rosstat authors calculated the trajectory of GDP and constructed demographic scenario forecast; further results are used in calculating the dynamics of each of the components of the costs and revenues of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation until 2100.
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