Long-term prediction of intermediate depth earthquakes in the southern Aegean region based on a time-predictable model

Abstract

Repeat times of strong intermediate depth (60 km ≤h ≤ 180 km) earthquakes have been determined by the use of instrumental and historical data for six seismogenic sources in the Benioff zone of the southern Aegean area. For four of these sources, at least two interevent times (three mainshocks) are available for each source. By using the repeat times for these four sources, the following relation has been determined: logTt = 0.20Mmin + 0.19Mp +a, whereTt is the repeat time (in years),Mmin the surface wave magnitude of the smallest earthquake considered,Mp the magnitude of the preceding mainshock and ‘a’ parameter which varies from source to source. A multilinear correlation coefficient equal to 0.91 was determined for this relation, which indicates that the time predictable model holds to a satisfactory degree for the strong mainshocks of intermediate focal depth in the southern Aegean.