Abstract
This paper presents an evaluation of energy supply strategies for Egypt’s power sector and identifies prospects to meet rising electricity demand while addressing energy security and low-carbon development issues. We apply the TIMES energy system model to examine Egypt’s energy policy goals as reflected in Egypt’s Vision 2030, and specifically: (a) targeted power generation based on renewable energy under two different scenarios; (b) targeted carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions’ mitigation toward low-carbon society development; and (c) constraints on natural gas production for power generation. The quantitative results from the model suggest a need for diversification from predominantly natural gas to a mix of renewable and conventional energy sources in order to improve energy security, reduce dependency on fossil fuels, and reduce carbon dioxide emissions, with the level of diversification changing with different policy options. Although total energy system cost is projected to increase the effects on fossil-fuel dependency, diversity of energy supply-mix, marginal electricity generation price, and GHG mitigation indicate that it may be wise to target promotion of renewable energy for power generation and develop a low-carbon society.
Highlights
Energy is a key determinant of socioeconomic development [1], in part, because energy consumption and economic growth are interrelated [2]
While energy security is essential for economic growth and development, the power sector is responsible for 41% of global CO2 emissions
The power sector consumes more than 50% of all natural gas, with the share of renewable energy declining from 13% in 2010 to 10% in 2014 [11]
Summary
Energy is a key determinant of socioeconomic development [1], in part, because energy consumption and economic growth are interrelated [2]. Selected global studies include: shale gas supply curves for 15 world regions [32], waste heat management at power plants and water conservation [33], and climate mitigation options under uncertain technology futures of the world energy system [34] The application of such an energy model for Egypt can provide important insights into the implications of prospective conversion technologies and energy supply options that can be pursued by the government of Egypt in a cost-efficient and effective way. This study is using the TIMES optimization modelling framework in order to identify the most cost-efficient energy development pathways that meet Egypt’s rising electricity demand while improving energy security, promoting indigenous energy use, and mitigating GHG emissions. Sensitivity analysis is performed to account for variations in discount rates, energy prices, investment costs (of renewable energy technologies), and impacts of nuclear power plants
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