Long-term mortality predictors in pulmonary embolism

Abstract

Abstract Funding Acknowledgements Type of funding sources: None. Introduction Acute Pulmonary embolism(PE)is a common and potentially fatal medical condition.In contemporary adult population,PE is associated with increased long-term mortality. Purpose Identify predictors of long-term all-cause mortality in patients(pts)admitted due to pulmonary embolism. Methods Retrospective single-center study of hospitalized pts with acute PE between 2015 and 2018.We evaluated comorbidities, admission(AD)presentation such as vitals(with hypotension defined as systolic blood pressure(SBP)<90mmHg,and tachycardia as >100ppm),lab analyses during in-hospital period,imaging features. Mortality(long-term >3months)was also assessed using national registry of citizens.We performed uni and multivariate analysis to compare clinical characteristics of pts who died and who survived,using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier methods.For the predictor age we assessed discrimination power and defined the best cut-off using area under the ROC curve(AUC)method. Results From 2015 to 2018,182 pts were admitted with diagnosis of pulmonary embolism,60% female with a mean age of 74 ± 13years old.Seventy-one(39%)pts died after a median follow-up of 26[10-41]months.Pts who died were older(80 ± 8 vs71 ± 14,p < 0.001).The best cut-off value of age to predict mortality with 70%sensitivity and 61%specificity was 77years old(AUC 0.703;CI95% 0.63-0.78).Pts who died had more frequently history of neoplasia (21%vs 9%,p = 0.009).The remaining comorbidities were similar in both groups.Pts who did not survive were more frequently hypotensive(28% vs 13%, p = 0.008),had higher creatinine(1.1[0.8-1.4] vs 1.0[0.8-1.2], p = 0.002), lactate(2.3[1.8-2.8]vs 1.8[1.5-2.0],p = 0.007)and NT-proBNP(4694[1498-12300]vs2070[492-6660], p < 0.001)at AD.Maximum troponin I (0.176[0.037-0.727]vs0.126[0.050-0.365]ng/mL,p = 0.012) was also higher than in pts who survived. After adjusting for history of neoplasia,ADcreatinine and maximum troponin I,we found that age (HR1.057;95%CI 1.01-1.11,p = 0.021),AD SBP < 90(HR 2.215;95%CI 1.03-4.76,p = 0.041),lactate(HR 1.17;95%CI 1.01-1.36,p = 0.035)and NT-proBNP(HR 1.510;95%CI 1.250-1.780,p < 0.001)were independent predictors of all-cause mortality. Conclusion In our cohort,the long-term all-cause mortality was 39%over a median follow-up of 26[10-41]months.In patients with pulmonary embolism,aside from already identified age(especially when ≥70 years old)and NT-proBNP,lactate should also be considered when evaluating long-term prognosis. Furthermore,hypotension at admission increases by 2fold long-term mortality in patients who suffered acute PE.