Long-term forest monitoring reveals constant mortality rise in European forests.

Abstract

European forests are an important source for timber production, human welfare, income, protection and biodiversity. During the last two decades, Europe has experienced a number of droughts which have been exceptional within the last 500 years, both in terms of duration and intensity. These droughts seem to leave remarkable imprints on the mortality dynamics of European forests. However, systematic observations on tree decline, with emphasis on a single species, has been scarce so far so that our understanding of mortality dynamics and drought occurrence is still limited at a continental scale. Here, we make use of the ICP Forest crown defoliation dataset, permitting us to retrospectively monitor tree mortality for all major conifers, major broadleaves, as well as a pooled dataset of minor tree species in Europe. In total, we analysed more than three million observations gathered during the last 25 years and employed a high-resolution drought index which can assess soil moisture anomaly based on a hydrological water-balance and runoff model. We found overall and species-specific increasing trends in mortality rates, accompanied by decreasing soil moisture. A generalized linear mixed model identified a previous-year soil moisture anomaly as the most important driver of mortality patterns in conifers, but the response was not uniform across the numerous analysed plots. We conclude that mortality patterns in European forests are currently reaching a concerning upward trend which could be further accelerated by global change-type droughts in the near future.