Long-Term Forecasting of Hybrid Renewable Energy Potential Using Weibull Distribution Method in Coimbatore

Abstract

Assessment of hybrid renewable energy is a critical factor for the suitable development of distributed generators (DG). Sizing of DGs needs accurate forecasting. This chapter presents a forecast of wind speed and solar irradiance using the two-parameter Weibull Distribution (WD) method. The dimensionless shape parameter ‘k’ and scale parameter ‘c’ are determined based on hourly global solar irradiance and wind speed from time series data during 2004–13 is used to estimate the Weibull parameters: hourly global solar irradiance and wind speed predicted all around a year. The performance of the Weibull Distribution method is analysed using Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Squared Error (MSE). The obtained result indicates the EPF method is suitable for prediction of mean hourly solar irradiance and wind speed.