Long-term factors and trends in the development of the fuel and energy complex of Ukraine

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to define long-term trends and factors in the development of the world energy industry and their refraction to Ukrainian realities. The article consists of an introduction, three sections, namely: the main trends in the development of the global fuel and energy complex, analysis of the current state, long-term trends and factors in the development of the national fuel and energy complex of Ukraine. Conclusions end the paper. As for the world energy sector it is shown that its modern changes – Grand Transit – are due to the ideology of sustainable development and have the character of an extraordinary change in the technocenosis, the transition from the use of fossil fuels to energy from renewable sources, mainly – wind and photovoltaic nature. Along with the major tendencies of the Great Transition, there is also the trilemization and politicization of energy sector. Trilemization components are: Energy Security, Energy Equity and Environmental Sustainability. There are three scenarios for the development of the global energy – Unfinished Symphony, Modern Jazz and Hardrock, distinguished by the degree of greening and the availability of energy resources. Political motives are becoming more and more significant at all levels – from global to local. Major players are lobbying their interests, there is an activity of structures from the field of nuclear energy, powerful fuel companies, owners of gas transportation and gas distribution infrastructure. In Ukraine, transformation processes are taking place against the backdrop of low environmental acceptability and high depreciation of fuel and energy sector facilities and infrastructure, political and economic instability. The requirements of decarbonization create challenges to the very existence of coal energy, which is the main component of the energy generating fund of the country and the regions, where mines are located. Options for the development of hydrogen/ammonia energy in the form of vertically integrated energy-chemical systems with the nuclear power plants and reformed coal-fired thermal power plants are considered as promising; energy diversification of mining regions; the creation of virtual power plants based on hydrodynamic water heating installations.