Long-term factorization in Heath–Jarrow–Morton models

Abstract

The long-term factorization decomposes the stochastic discount factor (SDF) into discounting at the rate of return on the long bond and a martingale that defines a long-term forward measure. We establish sufficient conditions for existence of the long-term factorization in HJM models. A condition on the forward rate volatility ensures existence of the long bond volatility. This yields existence of the long bond and convergence of $T$ -forward measures to the long forward measure. It contrasts with the familiar risk-neutral factorization that decomposes the SDF into discounting at the short rate and a martingale defining the risk-neutral measure.