Long‐term evolution and prediction of feed value for permanent mountain grassland hay: Analysis of a 32‐year data set in relation to climate change

Abstract

AbstractElevation of mean air temperature related to climate change speeds up plant maturity, which influences mostly forage feed value. The objective of the study was to assess variation in hay quality harvested over 32 years at the same experimental site, and whether feed value is better predicted by combining agro‐climatic variables with chemical composition. From 1979 to 2010, the in vivo digestibility (OMd) and voluntary dry matter intake (VDMI) of 271 hays, harvested during the first vegetation cycle on permanent grasslands, were measured in sheep. Over 32 years, the mean air temperature between February and August increased significantly by 1.34°C. Cutting date was advanced by 6 days, but the average sum of temperature at cutting (ST) increased significantly by 13%. Crude protein (CP) content declined (−22%, p < .001), crude fibre content increased (+8%, p < .001), OMd decreased (−3%, p = .012) and VDMI increased (+9%, p = .011). Changes in the chemical composition and OMd were consistent with the increase in ST. Finally, the prediction of OMd from CP and crude fibre contents (R2 = .57, RMSE = 2.99) was slightly improved by the addition of ST and hay drying time (R2 = .60, RMSE = 2.83). Climate change may have a negative indirect effect on hay quality if an earlier cutting date does not compensate for its effect on the faster maturation of the plants. Moreover, agro‐climatic criteria could help to monitor and predict hay quality in relation to intra‐ and inter‐annual climatic changes.