Long-term Energy and Fuel Consumption Forecast in Private and Commercial Transport using Artificial Life Approach

Abstract

This study describes the developed method intended for dynamic modelling of a country’s economic and demographic processes related to the transport market, vehicle and fuel consumption. The method of prediction used in this model is artificial life. The situation of energy consumption for motor transport in Latvia is considered. The model being developed examines the factors influencing energy consumption in road transport. The model takes into account the influence of various factors on energy consumption in transport population, income rates, number of vehicles, countries of the region, taxes, economic factors. The energy forecasting model focuses on a set of planning and forecasting practices that take into account micro- and macroeconomic variables. Since forecasting is a scientific study of specific development prospects based on a system of qualitative and quantitative research aimed at identifying trends in the development of desired indicators, it is necessary to compile statistics on micro and macroeconomics. Data from various fields related to various scopes of human activity have been collected and analysed.