Long-Term Ecological Effects of Demographic and Socioeconomic Factors in Wolong Nature Reserve (China)

Abstract

Demographic and socioeconomic factors at the individual or household levels may have significant impacts the spatiotemporal dynamics of wildlife habitat and biodiversity. Based on field data and a spatial agent-based model that integrates cross-scale data and cross-discipline models in Wolong Nature Reserve (China) for giant panda conservation, we examine how panda habitat would respond to changes in a set of socioeconomic and demographic factors individually and collectively. The model simulates each family member’s life history events and the household agents’ interactions with each other and with the environment over a period of 30 years. Our simulations show that demographic or migration decisions and economic incentives (e.g., electricity subsidy) would have escalating effects over time on local human population size, household number, and ultimately panda habitat. Aside from practical purposes, this study provides a new approach to studying human-environment interactions from the perspectives of individual needs and decisions.