Long-term earthquake prediction along the North and East Anatolian Fault Zones based on the time- and magnitude-predictable model

Abstract

SUMMARY The North and East Anatolian Fault Zones have been separated into 10 seismogenic sources on the basis of certain seismological and geomorphological criteria. In each of these sources, the interevent times between successive main shocks with magnitudes equal to or larger than a certain magnitude threshold were considered. These times and the magnitudes of the main shocks have been used to determine the following empirical relations: log Tt= 0.27 Mmin+ 0.19 Mp+a, Mf= 0.76 Mmin - 0.48Mp+m where Tt is the interevent time measured in years, M,min the surface wave magnitude of the smallest main shock considered, Mp is the magnitude of the preceding main shock, and Mf is the magnitude of the following main shock. Multiple correlation coefficients equal to 0.83 and 0.70 and standard deviations equal to 0.16 and 0.34 were calculated for the first and second of these relations, respectively. On the basis of these relations and taking into account the time of occurrence of the last main shock, the probabilities of occurrence of main shocks in each seismogenic source during the next decade were determined.