Long-Term Climate Trends and Extreme Events in Northern Fennoscandia (1914–2013)

Sonja Kivinen,Kirsti Jylhä,Mikko Laapas,Sirpa Rasmus

doi:10.3390/cli5010016

Abstract

We studied climate trends and the occurrence of rare and extreme temperature and precipitation events in northern Fennoscandia in 1914–2013. Weather data were derived from nine observation stations located in Finland, Norway, Sweden and Russia. The results showed that spring and autumn temperatures and to a lesser extent summer temperatures increased significantly in the study region, the observed changes being the greatest for daily minimum temperatures. The number of frost days declined both in spring and autumn. Rarely cold winter, spring, summer and autumn seasons had a low occurrence and rarely warm spring and autumn seasons a high occurrence during the last 20-year interval (1994–2013), compared to the other 20-year intervals. That period was also characterized by a low number of days with extremely low temperature in all seasons (4–9% of all extremely cold days) and a high number of April and October days with extremely high temperature (36–42% of all extremely warm days). A tendency of exceptionally high daily precipitation sums to grow even higher towards the end of the study period was also observed. To summarize, the results indicate a shortening of the cold season in northern Fennoscandia. Furthermore, the results suggest significant declines in extremely cold climate events in all seasons and increases in extremely warm climate events particularly in spring and autumn seasons.

Highlights

Observations from northern regions have shown a significant warming trend during the past decades [1,2]
In addition to increasing temperatures, climate warming is expected to lead to increases in frequency, intensity and duration of several extreme weather and climate events [9,10,11]
We studied climate trends and extreme events in northern Fennoscandia over the

Summary

Introduction

Observations from northern regions have shown a significant warming trend during the past decades [1,2]. Temperatures at northern high latitudes have increased more than twice as fast as the global average. This phenomenon, usually referred as arctic or polar amplification, is driven by complex climate system feedbacks, such as reductions of sea ice and snow cover and changes in atmospheric and ocean circulation [3,4,5]. In addition to increasing temperatures, climate warming is expected to lead to increases in frequency, intensity and duration of several extreme weather and climate events [9,10,11]. Earlier observational and climate model studies focused mainly on changes in mean climate, and possible changes in weather and climate extremes started to be analyzed only since the early 1990s [12,13]

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